The Steepest Fall This Cycle: Mineral fuels and oils

The mineral fuels and oils trade has entered a steep descent. Across the EU, exports fell €339.5B year-over-year, a -14.7% drop. Imports fell harder, shedding €589.3B, or -13.8%. This is the largest year-over-year shift in the EU trade mirror this cycle. The decline cuts both ways — exporters and importers alike are retrenching.

Seasonal patterns offer little relief. Exports into the Netherlands peak in October, with an index of 1.138, and trough in December at 0.874. June’s index reads 0.982, placing it near the baseline. Volume gives no directional steer this month. The seasonal ebb and flow of trade is muted, leaving the broader downward trend exposed.

Meanwhile, HS71 imports are moving in the opposite direction, rising €127.5B year-over-year, a +28.4% increase. This divergence underscores the shifting priorities in global trade flows. Mineral fuels and oils are no longer the dominant force they once were.

The data points toward sustained pressure on the mineral fuels and oils trade. The steep year-over-year declines, coupled with muted seasonal patterns, suggest a structural shift rather than a temporary dip. The EU’s trade mirror reflects a world recalibrating its energy dependencies.

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_This post is informational, derived from descriptive EU customs-clearing statistics (Eurostat COMEXT). It is not financial or investment advice and contains no price forecast. Trade flows describe what already moved; they do not predict prices._